Thinking About Liquidity in Old Coins — Can You Sell When You Want To? The Reality Seen Through Market Data

Old coins are physical gold, so you can sell them any time you want——.

Do you believe that? In reality, depending on the denomination, not being able to sell when you want to is far from rare.

If you misjudge market liquidity, the old coins you bought can become "inventory" rather than "assets."

What Is Liquidity — The Reality of the Old Coin Market

One thing that is surprisingly overlooked in old coin investing is "liquidity."

Liquidity, put simply, refers to "the degree to which you can sell at a price close to your desired price when you want to sell."

For example, popular denominations such as Koban and Kan'ei Tsūhō (寛永通宝) trade frequently, giving you flexibility in your selling timing.

However, on the other hand, niche regional coins and rare grades may require a long wait before a buyer appears.

The trading volume in the old coin market is far thinner compared to the stock market or the bullion gold market.

For this reason, even if you judge "this coin has value," when it actually comes time to sell, you may be forced to let it go at a lower price than expected — such situations can and do occur.

Low liquidity is a "hidden risk" of old coin investing.

"Difficulty of Sale" as Revealed by Trading Volume

The most direct indicator for judging the liquidity of old coins is the number of past transactions (number of completed sales).

For example, a denomination with 100 recorded auction results over the past year is entirely different from one with only 5.

The more transactions a denomination has, the more stable its market price and the more selling opportunities arise.

When you look at ITTENDO's market data, this difference is striking.

[Active Trading Zone]

• Kan'ei Tsūhō (寛永通宝) (especially common grades): 20–50 transactions per month
• Koban (MS60–MS63): 10–30 transactions per month
• Tenpō Tsūhō (天保通宝) (standard specimens): 5–15 transactions per month

[Thin Trading Zone]

• Regional coins (Fukui-sen, etc.): 1–3 transactions per month, or one every several months
• Rare grades (MS67 and above): approximately once every several months
• Error coins and special items: irregular, only once every several years

What this difference means is that for denominations with few transactions, the market price is only formed as isolated "points."

The Danger of "Thin Trading" — One Lot Can Move the Entire Market

Have you ever heard the term "thin trading" in the old coin market?

For denominations with few transactions, the sale price of a single lot can have a major influence on overall market perception.

For example, suppose a regional coin sells at auction for the first time in three years and goes for an unexpectedly high price.

Immediately afterward, sellers of the same denomination begin listing at high prices under the misapprehension that "the market has risen."

However, that high price may simply mean "an enthusiastic buyer happened to appear at that moment."

Afterward, with no buyers appearing, the seller is ultimately forced to lower the price — such cases are not uncommon.

In thinly traded denominations, there is a risk that prices move not on "real demand" but on "assumption."

In Basics of Old Coin Auctions, we explain in detail how to read realized prices, but the key attitude is "do not react to a single realized price until multiple data points have accumulated."

Liquidity Differences by Grade Band

Another thing not to overlook is the difference in liquidity by grade (condition).

Even for the same denomination, trading volume changes significantly when the grade differs.

Take Kan'ei Tsūhō (寛永通宝) as an example:

[High Liquidity]

• VF (Very Fine) – XF (Extremely Fine): 30–50 transactions per month
• MS60–MS62: 20–35 transactions per month

[Moderate Liquidity]

• MS63–MS64: 8–15 transactions per month

[Low Liquidity]

• MS65 and above: 2–5 transactions per month (or once every several months)

This means "the higher the grade, the more limited the pool of buyers."

High-grade MS65 pieces certainly have high value, but that means fewer buyers and a risk that selling takes time.

On the other hand, at around MS63, there are comparatively more buyers, and there is a tendency to be able to sell relatively quickly.

By understanding Standards and How to Read Old Coin Grading, you can recognize this difference in liquidity in advance.

Liquidity Map by Denomination

When you organize old coins as a whole from the perspective of "liquidity," the following picture emerges.

[Highest Liquidity]

• Kan'ei Tsūhō (寛永通宝) (common grades)
• Koban (MS60–MS64)
• Tenpō Tsūhō (天保通宝) (standard specimens)

These function as "entry-level denominations for old coin investing" and always have buyers.

[Moderate Liquidity]

• Edo silver coins (Chōgin (丁銀) and Mameitagin (豆板銀)) standard specimens
• Commemorative coins (Tokyo Olympics, World Expo, etc.)
• Low-grade specimens of rare Koban

These require anticipating a "specialist buyer" and may take from several weeks to several months to sell.

[Low Liquidity]

• Regional coins (Fukui-sen, Kaga-sen, etc.)
• High-grade pieces (MS65 and above)
• Error coins and special items

These are "for collectors" and you must be prepared for considerable time before a buyer is found.

Detailed Overview of Ana-sen (Kan'ei Tsūhō · Tenpō Tsūhō) provides a more detailed explanation of the market structure of these denominations.

Liquidity Signals to Read from Market Charts

When looking at ITTENDO's market charts, not only "did the price go up or down" but also changes in the number of transactions are important.

Good examples are as follows:

[High-Liquidity State]

• Price range is stable
• Multiple transactions are recorded each month
• The spread between the median and the highest and lowest values is small

[Signals of Declining Liquidity]

• No transactions for several months
• A single lot that appears after a long absence has a realized price significantly different from the previous month's market
• Even within the same denomination, "points" are scattered across different grade bands

If you invest in a denomination with low liquidity, you must build your financial plan on the premise that "this denomination may take time to sell."

Mistakes That Beginners Tend to Make

Investing by misjudging liquidity is a common pitfall that old coin beginners fall into.

[Failure Pattern 1: Judging by Rarity Alone]

Purchasing solely because "only 100 pieces of this denomination were issued."

However, no buyer can be found, and the piece ends up sitting unsold for years — this kind of situation occurs.

Rarity and liquidity are different things.

[Failure Pattern 2: Investing Heavily in High-Grade Pieces All at Once]

High-grade pieces of MS65 and above certainly have high value, but the pool of buyers is limited.

When you actually try to sell, you may be told "there are no buyers at this price."

[Failure Pattern 3: Mistaking a Thinly Traded Denomination's Single "Point" for the Market Price]

Believing the information that "this denomination sold for ¥500,000 three months ago" and making a purchase.

However, in reality, that was an outlier produced by a special buyer, and the normal market price was ¥300,000 — this kind of situation arises.

Thinking About an Exit Strategy

The most important thing in old coin investing is planning from the moment of purchase for "when and at what price" you will sell.

From the perspective of liquidity, the following strategies can be considered:

[When Aiming for Short-Term Sale]

Choose the highest-liquidity denominations (Kan'ei Tsūhō, standard Koban, etc.) and sell when the market rises.

Because there are many transactions, you have flexibility in choosing your selling timing.

[When Planning for Medium-Term Holding]

Choose moderate-liquidity denominations and wait for a specialist buyer to appear.

Be prepared for a holding period of several months to about one year.

[For Long-Term Holding / Collection Purposes]

Prioritize grade and rarity, with liquidity as a secondary consideration.

The mindset of "not assuming you will sell" is important.

How to Monitor Liquidity Using Market Charts

When checking price history with market charts, please check the following points:

1. Trends in Number of Transactions

Whether the number of transactions over the past 12 months is stable or trending downward.

If it is trending downward, that is a signal that liquidity is declining.

2. Stability of the Median Value

If the spread between the highest and lowest values is large, there is a possibility of thin trading.

It is wise to suspend market judgment until multiple transaction data points have been gathered.

3. Number of Transactions by Grade Band

How much the number of transactions differs between MS63 and MS65.

The greater the difference, the more limited the liquidity of high-grade pieces.

ITTENDO's Conclusion: Making Liquidity a Pillar of Investment Decisions

To succeed in old coin investing, it is important to recognize that "having value" and "being sellable" are separate issues.

Beginners in particular should start with high-liquidity denominations.

Kan'ei Tsūhō (寛永通宝) and standard Koban at MS60–MS63 may indeed offer less expectation of price appreciation than high-grade pieces.

However, the peace of mind that "you can sell when you want to sell" and the abundance of market data greatly assist investment decisions.

Once you have financial room to spare, gradually take on denominations with lower liquidity — that kind of step-by-step approach is the tried-and-true path for old coin investing.

Just as with How to Identify Fakes and Altered Pieces, understanding liquidity should be positioned as a fundamental skill of old coin investing — an important theme in its own right.

At ITTENDO, we make it possible to track the "current state" of old coins based on past auction history and market charts. If you add categories of interest to your Vault, you will be less likely to miss changes in the market.

Reconsidering the Relationship Between Liquidity and Value

The relationship between old coin liquidity and value is a theme that should be continually explored when thinking about strategies for collector activity. High-liquidity denominations offer many selling opportunities but may have lower rarity. Low-liquidity denominations have limited selling opportunities but may have higher rarity. From the perspective of market analysis covered in How to Read Old Coin Market Charts Correctly, the balance between liquidity and rarity is reflected in market prices.

Judging the Timing of Sale

Judging the timing of selling old coins requires comprehensive consideration of multiple factors. The combination of the overall temperature of the market, trading trends by denomination, personal financial circumstances, and a review of collection strategy determines the optimal timing. As in the rising phase of the Meiji gold coin market covered in Is the Meiji Gold Coin Boom Returning?, a period when prices are rising can be said to be an advantageous moment as a selling opportunity.

Criteria for Choosing a Sales Channel

It is recommended to choose a sales channel with awareness of the trade-offs among time required, fees, and certainty of sale. The basic pattern is: for immediacy, sell to a specialist dealer; to aim for maximum price, use an auction; to keep fees down, conduct a private transaction. It is important to understand the characteristics of the auction market covered in Basics of Old Coin Auctions and then choose the channel that suits your sales objectives.

Utilizing International Auctions

International auctions can sometimes achieve higher prices than the domestic market for the sale of rare denominations and high-value pieces. Overseas auction transactions covered in Trends in Japanese Old Coin Results at Heritage Auctions represent a new option for domestic collectors. However, because overseas transactions involve additional management considerations such as foreign exchange risk, customs duties, and shipping risk, collaboration with a specialist dealer is a prerequisite.

Designing a Collection with Liquidity in Mind

Collection design that is conscious of liquidity has several basic principles. The first is to center on well-known denominations. Representative denominations such as the Keichō Koban (慶長小判) covered in Key Points for Authenticating Keichō Koban have stable liquidity. The second is to be conscious of grade diversification. Diversified investment that is mindful of the grading system covered in Standards and How to Read Old Coin Grading supports long-term liquidity.

Balancing Long-Term Holding and Liquidity

Even if you assume you will hold pieces for a long time, by incorporating some high-liquidity denominations into a portion of your portfolio, you will be prepared to convert to cash in an emergency. While being mindful of the three axes of risk management covered in Risk Management in Old Coin Investing, striking a balance between liquidity and long-term holding forms the foundation of strategic collection building.

Optimizing Liquidity and Holding Period

Optimizing liquidity and holding period is an important theme when thinking about strategies for collector activity. An attitude that aims to balance the short-term pursuit of liquidity with the long-term preservation of cultural heritage will become the essence of collector activity in the twenty-first century. By interpreting the market temperature — such as the rising phase of the modern gold coin market covered in Is the Meiji Gold Coin Boom Returning? — from a long-term perspective, a strategy that balances liquidity and value can be built. By taking time as an ally and deepening the dialogue with cultural heritage, collectors can realize the essential significance of their collecting activity.

Liquidity in the International Market

Liquidity in the international market can be confirmed through the overseas auctions covered in Trends in Japanese Old Coin Results at Heritage Auctions. Understanding the differences in liquidity between the domestic market and overseas markets is a prerequisite for collector strategy in the global era.

Supplementary Note to the Conclusion

While remaining conscious of the issue of liquidity, an attitude of cultivating a long-term cultural heritage collection is the essence of collector activity in the era to come. Rather than being swayed by short-term selling opportunities and instead deepening the dialogue with cultural heritage, a collection deepens into an existence that carries meaning both as an asset and as a cultural heritage piece. Used in combination with Basics of Old Coin Auctions and Risk Management in Old Coin Investing, strategic collecting activity can be practiced.

Understanding the issue of liquidity is an important preparation before beginning collector activity. In the era to come, as both newcomers and existing collectors continue to learn together, understanding of the market will deepen. Through activities such as exchanging information with fellow collectors, participating in study groups, and subscribing to specialist publications, it is recommended to continuously accumulate the latest knowledge regarding liquidity. An attitude of deepening the dialogue with cultural heritage from a long-term perspective is the foundation that supports the overall significance of collecting activity.

Deeply understanding the liquidity of old coins is foundational knowledge that supports the quality of collector activity. Because it cannot be acquired overnight, it is recommended to approach it as a theme to be studied continuously over the long term. By always being conscious of the relationship between structural changes across the entire market and one's own collection strategy, the significance of collecting activity deepens.

Collector activity is a pursuit that transcends generations. An attitude of cherishing each individual old coin and deepening the dialogue with cultural heritage ultimately supports the transmission of value.

Summary

Based on the Reality of Liquidity

By taking stock of the reality of old coin liquidity, the strategy for collecting activity becomes realistic. Understanding the reality of the market and then making denomination selections that match your own collecting objectives and time horizon leads to long-term results.

Collection Design That Takes Liquidity into Account

Collection design that takes old coin liquidity into account is the foundation supporting the strategy for long-term activity. It is recommended to understand the three relationships — liquidity and rarity, liquidity and value, and liquidity and holding period — and then establish a strategy that matches your own collecting objectives. Used in combination with the groundwork for long-term holding covered in Practical Storage and Humidity Management for Old Coins and Risk Management in Old Coin Investing, strategic collection building becomes possible. In the era to come, the pursuit of cultivating a collection through dialogue with cultural heritage will continue.

Long-Term Strategy for Individual Collectors

In building a long-term strategy as an individual collector, the liquidity perspective is an important element but not the only one. By combining multifaceted elements such as rarity, cultural value, your own areas of interest, accumulated knowledge and experience, and interaction with fellow collectors, the collecting activity as a whole becomes richer. Combining the long-term storage infrastructure covered in Practical Storage and Humidity Management for Old Coins with an awareness of liquidity, let us each establish our own collecting style.

Let us continue to explore the liquidity-conscious collection strategy going forward. The accumulation of new knowledge and experience will support long-term results.

Old coin liquidity is not a short-term phenomenon but a long-term structural characteristic. As an element to be continuously kept in mind throughout collecting activity, it is an important theme for which research and discussion will continue going forward.

Without losing sight of the essence of collecting activity, let us deepen the dialogue with cultural heritage from a long-term perspective.

The debate surrounding the relationship between liquidity and value will continue to develop going forward. While cherishing each individual old coin, let us deepen the dialogue with cultural heritage from a long-term perspective.

A collection is a lifelong intellectual journey. Let us proceed with enjoyment from a long-term perspective.

Let us cherish the encounter with old coins and nurture it. A long-term dialogue with cultural heritage is the foundation that supports the essential significance of collecting activity.